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Capstone Green Energy Holdings, Inc. (CGEH)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY2025 revenue was $27.1M (+11% YoY) with gross margin expanding to 28% (vs ~11% YoY), delivering adjusted EBITDA of $2.8M and near-breakeven net loss of $0.1M; full-year FY2025 achieved the company’s first positive adjusted EBITDA, a notable milestone.
  • Strength came from product price increases, improved rental fleet utilization, and cost efficiencies; Europe remained soft due to restructuring hesitancy, while North America demand improved, including EaaS rentals.
  • Management reiterated focus on financial discipline (DFMA cost-out, OpEx control) and disclosed the SEC investigation was closed with no action; working to elevate stock to OTC QX and longer-term relist on a national exchange.
  • No formal numeric guidance provided; management pointed to similar near-term performance trends and order momentum, with tailwinds from IRA credits and oil & gas rentals utilization.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Gross profit surged to $7.5M and gross margin to 28% in Q4, driven by pricing actions, rental utilization, and operational cost efficiencies. “Price increases across the portfolio improved margins.”
  • Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $2.8M in Q4 and $7.9M for FY2025, reflecting “financial and business discipline actions” and significant non-recurring addbacks that concluded in Q1 FY2026.
  • SEC investigation closed with no action, removing a key overhang; management emphasized disciplined execution and cultural revitalization positioning for sustainable performance.

What Went Wrong

  • Full-year revenue declined to $85.6M (from $91.2M) due to slow H1 product sales and European instability following restructuring; product/accessories mix fell to 47% of FY revenue (from 54% prior year).
  • Europe saw order softness (macro gas volatility, anti-gas stance), while deferred revenue dynamics and receivable write-offs reflected lingering post-restructuring and COVID-era impacts.
  • Tariffs (steel/aluminum) present a gross margin headwind on components; management is modeling scenarios, with potential offset from European competitor tariffs benefiting U.S.-made product positioning.

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend vs Prior Year and Estimates

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$22.722 $20.148 $27.051
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$7.010 $4.994 $7.508
Gross Margin (%)31% 25% 28%
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$0.018 $(2.063) $0.014
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(0.423) $(2.704) $(0.126)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)$(0.02) $(0.14) $(0.01)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$1.704 $(0.748) $1.769
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$3.834 $0.533 $2.829
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)N/A*N/A*Unavailable*
EPS Consensus ($USD)N/A*N/A*Unavailable*
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Q4 Year-over-Year Comparison

MetricQ4 2024Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$24.348 $27.051
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$2.574 $7.508
Gross Margin (%)~10.6% (derived from )28%
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(5.282) $(0.126)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)$(0.28) $(0.01)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(0.772) $2.829

Segment Breakdown – Q4

Revenue Category ($USD Thousands)Q4 2024Q4 2025
Product & Accessories$15,643 $15,316
Parts & Service$6,775 $7,711
Rentals$1,930 $4,024
Total Revenue$24,348 $27,051

KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Thousands)$2,713 $3,314 $8,671
Net Cash from Operations (period)$0.9M (6M) $2.2M (9M) $7.7M (12M)
Deferred Revenue – Current ($USD Thousands)$9,267 $15,332 $13,351
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$3.834 $0.533 $2.829

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY/Q4None provided No formal guidance; management suggests similar near-term performance trends Maintained (no guidance)
Gross MarginFY/Q4None provided No formal guidance; margin supported by pricing and DFMA Maintained (no guidance)
Adjusted EBITDAFY/Q4None provided No formal guidance; discipline and cost-out underpin EBITDA Maintained (no guidance)
EPSFY/Q4None provided No formal guidance Maintained (no guidance)
Capital StructureFY2025–FY2026N/ARefinancing discussions for exit notes due 12/02/2025 N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: Q4 call transcript not available; Q3 transcript used, and Q4 press release commentary included. Q4 call was scheduled for July 2, 2025.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4)Trend
AI/data centersData centers seen as a “hot market” with blocks of power opportunities; hurdles remain; evaluating solutions for 15MW expansions and multi-year grid delays. Not explicitly discussed in Q4 PR; focus on operational execution and margin. Watchlist; opportunity developing
Supply chain & DFMA cost-outDFMA initiative launched; example reduced dump valve assembly cost by 65–90%; cross-functional teams; commitment not to compromise reliability/quality. Cost efficiencies and improved productivity cited as margin drivers; DFMA central to discipline. Improving; structural
Tariffs/macroSteel/aluminum tariffs are material headwinds; European tariffs could benefit U.S. competition positioning; monitoring scenarios. Not explicitly reiterated; Europe weakness persisted from restructuring and macro instability. Mixed; cost headwind vs potential competitive offset
Product performance/marginsGross margin improved to 25% in Q3; price increases and mix drove gains; focus on product margin expansion via DFMA and absorption. Gross margin expanded to 28%; stronger pricing, utilization, OpEx discipline. Improving
Regional trendsNorth America orders ~10x other regions; IRA credits and grid constraints as tailwinds; Europe soft due to war/gas and anti-gas movement; Australia distributor pursuing alternative fuels. YoY revenue up; commentary points to demand recovery and EaaS rentals strength; Europe still soft. NA strength; EU softness
Regulatory/legalOTC Pink trading initiated; application to move to OTCQX; SEC investigation closed with no action. Pursuing OTCQX; long-term goal relist on Nasdaq; investigation closure removes overhang. Improving market infrastructure
R&D/executionIncreased R&D spend to refresh electronics and design consolidation; focus on electronics. Continued operational excellence and productivity improvements; pricing actions executed. Steady investment

Management Commentary

  • CFO: “Fourth-quarter results… reflect the improvements in our services and rental business revenues, and lower costs of goods sold driven by our cost-out initiatives… strategic price increases across the portfolio improved margins.”
  • CFO: “The previously disclosed SEC investigation has been closed with no action taken by the SEC… focus on the strategic growth of the business.”
  • CEO: “In all of its 37-year history, the Company has never delivered a positive Adjusted EBITDA over a full fiscal year… steady improvements in financial health, operational excellence, and revitalization of our culture.”
  • Q3 CEO: North America orders surged; EaaS rentals had “very strong utilization rates” and price increases; adjusted EBITDA margin trending up via price stickiness and OpEx optimization.

Q&A Highlights

  • End-markets: Oil & gas is a current hotspot across rentals and new unit sales; data centers are a large opportunity with power blocks; electrification and EV charging seeing infrastructure constraints.
  • Margins & DFMA: Significant runway in product margin via DFMA and absorption; service/rentals margin improves with operational discipline; DFMA projects target non-powertrain components first to avoid reliability compromise.
  • Tariffs: Steel/aluminum tariffs are a COGS headwind; potential benefit from tariffs on European competitors’ finished goods in U.S.; active scenario modeling.
  • Capital & working capital: Refinancing discussions underway for $7.8M exit notes due 12/02/2025; receivables allowance reduced for remote collectability; deferred revenue increased with deposits reflecting improved order book.
  • Operations & lead times: Typical order-to-billing ~13–14 weeks; pushing suppliers to reduce extended COVID-era lead times; evaluating secondary market turbines for rental fleet conversion.

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 FY2025 appear unavailable due to limited coverage; no beat/miss determination can be made. Values retrieved from S&P Global.* [GetEstimates output]
  • Implication: Absent formal consensus, investor focus should center on sequential momentum (revenue +34% vs Q3, margin +300bps) and structural margin drivers (pricing, DFMA), rather than headline beat/miss optics.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin story improving: Q4 gross margin 28% and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8M reflect pricing actions, rental utilization, and DFMA; FY2025 delivered first full-year positive adjusted EBITDA.
  • Demand normalization: Sequential revenue acceleration (+$6.9M vs Q3) and deposits indicate order recovery; EaaS rentals utilization remains a lever for cash generation.
  • Legal/market structure de-risked: SEC investigation closure removes an uncertainty; OTCQX pursuit and eventual relist aim to broaden investor base and liquidity.
  • Watch tariffs and Europe: Component tariffs can pressure COGS; Europe demand remains soft; U.S. manufacturing base and potential tariff asymmetries may aid competitiveness domestically.
  • Capital considerations: Exit notes refinancing in process; improving operating cash flow ($7.7M FY) and DFMA cost-out support liquidity; monitor receivables and deferred revenue conversion.
  • Near-term trading: Narrative catalysts include margin expansion, adjusted EBITDA inflection, SEC closure, and OTCQX progress; absence of formal guidance may shift focus to operational execution and order momentum.
  • Medium-term thesis: Structural margin improvements via DFMA and absorption, EaaS growth, NA tailwinds (IRA, grid constraints), and portfolio additions (transactional cleantech products) can underpin sustained profitability.

Citations:

  • Q4 FY2025 8-K and press release:
  • Q3 FY2025 8-K and press release:
  • Q3 FY2025 earnings call transcript:
  • Q2 FY2025 8-K and press release:
  • Q1 FY2025 8-K and press release:
  • Q4 relevant press release: Board appointment (Q4 window):

Estimates note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*